Part Two: Why we must be efficient
Part One of this series discussed "modelling the ideal." This means identifying the optimum quantities of different types of floor space.
"Optimum" suggests that while we must have enough of each type of space, we should also avoid excess.
But this raises a legitimate question:
Of all the things educators should be concerned about, why focus on floor space efficiency?
After all, estate running costs are a modest part of most institutions' overall costs (12% within UK FE Colleges, according to Department for Education 2021/2022 accounts data).
Senior leaders of education organisations do not invest time in managing the menu in the cafeteria. Is managing floor space so much more important? Shouldn't we focus on the quality of teaching rather than be concerned that some spaces could be a bit smaller? Indeed, enterprises often fail when they prioritise reducing costs over improving quality.
Furthermore, many HE teachers would be troubled to hear that their rooms might be reduced in size or number. Historically, higher education institutions worldwide have constructed new buildings with quality amenities to attract students and recruit talented staff. In the past these structures have often been built for a specific faculty or department, serving as a vote of confidence in the teaching and research undertaken by the occupants.
Therefore, removing space might feel like a vote of no confidence!
Additionally, things constantly evolve, so the estate must accommodate significant changes. These changes include new teaching pedagogies, courses, and qualifications. There are also annual and unforeseen variations in enrolments. Floor space allocation must include some "wriggle room" to accommodate long-term changes and short-term volatility.
Teaching colleagues must not be straight-jacketed. Imagine planning a new course only to be advised that there is insufficient space to accommodate it! A supermarket would never fail to display an exciting new product due to insufficient shelving.
But there are three compelling reasons why we need to be efficient.
1. The Income Challenge
In the future, every penny will count.
The construction of new floor space comes with relatively fixed operational costs that last the building's lifetime. However, UK Further Education colleges have been under financial pressure for over a decade. This is due to FE colleges lacking the political clout of their well-connected HE counterparts, and they suffer accordingly.
Now, Higher Education is changing. In many developed economies, young people are increasingly hesitant to enrol at HE institutions.
Pay to Learn versus Earn and Learn
Entry-level jobs may be modestly paid, but in stark contrast to full-time education, they do pay. These jobs often include on-the-job training, leading to opportunities for progression within the company. Advocates of this apprenticeship style approach contrast "pay to learn" with "earn and learn".
According to statista.com, US college enrolment peaked in 2010 after decades of steady growth. By 2022, there were around 12% fewer enrolments. Economies are changing, and young people recognise that a degree does not guarantee a well-paid job. However, it guarantees a significant student loan debt for the majority.
The academic nature of widely available higher education has numerous benefits for society. Nevertheless, at the purely financial level, it's questionable whether all indebted graduates gain sufficient employment skills to make the transaction a fair one. According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, one in five UK students, or about 70,000 every year, would actually have been better off financially had they not gone to university. Naturally, there is increasing public interest in this topic, and such studies are widely reported on popular news sites.
According to the Higher Education Statistics Agency, UK HE enrolments fell for the first time in 2021/22 (the latest available data). UK public universities have grown for a decade longer than their US counterparts, but it's uncertain that this trend will continue.
Additionally, UK universities face another downward pressure on income. The government fixes maximum tuition fees for UK students attending English and Welsh universities. The annual fee was last increased in 2017 (for the first time in five years) to £9,250. Recent soaring inflation has significantly impacted the value of this amount to these universities. However, few politicians believe that proposing an increase will be a vote winner. This political reality is another sign of widespread public concern over paying too much for a degree.
So many UK Universities now rely on the wealthy parents of overseas students to subsidise their home-grown students. Unfortunately, increasing right-wing scepticism over overseas students' entry to the UK limits this income source.
The position is increasingly precarious. Several universities, such as UEA and UCLAN, have reported deficits, deferred pay rises and even contemplated redundancy programmes.
2. The Existential Challenge
In JISC's 2022/23 UK higher education students digital experience insights survey, most students supported a blend of online and face-to-face teaching. When asked where they would like to be taught, 45% said mainly on-site, 41% preferred a mix of on-site and online, and 14% wanted primarily online. Over the long term, with advancing virtual technologies (see below), similar surveys will likely only tilt in one direction.
Of course, most of our current colleges and universities will continue to use physical accommodation; that is how they do things.
We used the word "current" advisedly. An increasing number of highly efficient 'challenger' institutions (not included in the JISC survey) will operate primarily online. Increasingly, their flexible, modularised, and vocationally relevant courses will engage many students. Amazon took down your local department store, and online education enterprises have traditional institutions in their sights. And just like Amazon, they have lower overheads.
Young people are increasingly aware that to remain economically active through the 21st century, they must learn new skills throughout their working lives. They will acquire these skills via short courses and from multiple sources (traditional and non-traditional). Many of these courses will be delivered online.
Traditional HE institutions can still offer that unique right of passage: moving from home, making new friends, and studying for a degree. But in the future, competitors' virtual learning packages will likely be combined with optional "physical modules" delivered in a range of physical locations. You may study primarily at home but attend that week-long group-working module in Liverpool, Edinburgh or Barcelona (you decide).
So, higher qualifications courses, delivered mainly online, can still provide exciting 'real-world' experiences. These experiences will not be tied to one city but include a rich tapestry of different urban and rural settings. This approach may underscore the learning. As part of a primarily online modern languages degree, a French module might be in Paris and a German module in Munich. Meanwhile, an agriculture course could be studied at home with study visits to Herefordshire and the Dordogne region.
In such circumstances, traditional institutions cannot take student enrolment for granted.
To survive and thrive, bricks-and-mortar institutions must offer a balanced, attractive package combining the very best of online and in-person learning. Online learning will be used where it is most effective, and in-person learning will be used where it works best. This 'no compromise on the best-practice' approach, plus that right of passage, will be the enduring appeal of these institutions.
However, given the above income and existential challenges, bricks-and-mortar institutions may still need to reduce estate costs to remain both competitive and financially viable. If you are responsible for an institution's finances, you might think you are running a tight ship. But try walking around campus on Friday afternoon in term time. Of course, such a Friday is one of around 165 days in the year most institutions teach. For Two hundred days a year, most of the rooms lie fallow.
EXAMPLE: The Ten Classroom Block (part one)
A 25-person classroom requires around 50 square metres (assuming a relatively compact 'didactic' format). Add around 33% to the classroom area for "balance space" (associated circulation, toilets, plant rooms, etc.). So, providing a single 25-person classroom requires around 67 square metres.
Sector data indicates that many UK institutions spend at least £100/square metre/year on estate costs (lighting, heating, cleaning, maintenance, etc.). Therefore, 67 square metres equates to £6,700/annum.
Suppose a college campus has a small block with just ten 25-person classrooms. This means operational costs are circa £67,000/annum. So, over twenty-five years, total Operational Costs will be £1.675 million.
Furthermore, assume the building containing ten classrooms has seen better days. The consensus is that it 'needs replacing'. What is the capital cost of replacement? Let's assume that a ten-classroom block will require 670 square metres. In the UK, the gross cost per square metre of 'basic' education space at 2024 prices is around £2,500 (most HE institutions will pay a lot more). So, 670 square metres will cost at least £1.675 million.
In this example, the capital cost of ten spaces will be identical to the operational costs, with a combined total of £3.35 million for the first twenty-five years of use (a third of a million pounds per room). In the past, institutions have been able to bear these costs, but this is unlikely to continue.
3. The Ecological Imperative
On a global level, the built environment accounts for 30% of greenhouse gas emissions. It's not generally understood (or perhaps conveniently forgotten) that many so-called 'eco-friendly' new builds come at a high environmental cost due to 'Embodied Carbon'.
This Embodied Carbon is the total CO2 emissions caused by creating, transporting, and assembling all the materials and components of a building.
EXAMPLE: The Ten Classroom Block (part two)
Embodied Carbon for the majority of new multi-storey construction in the UK is understood to be between 400 and 700 kgCO2/m2. If we build the ten classrooms mentioned above, a 670-square-metre classroom block at an efficient 400 kgCO2/m2, the total embodied carbon will be 268,000 kgCO2.
For context, let's say instead of constructing ten classrooms, you drove ten diesel-powered Range Rover Evoque S, each 169,000 kilometres (105,000 miles). The emissions would be about the same.
Of course, Embodied emissions occur before and during construction. Historically, Operational Emissions over the lifespan of the building (heating, lighting, cleaning, and maintenance) have had a more significant carbon footprint than Embodied emissions. Using best-practice design and technologies, we might produce a new building close to or at net zero carbon whilst in operation, but this always comes with the short-term impacts of embodied carbon.
Summary: Bottoms-Up!
Whatever our initial concerns, the existential virtual challenges facing many bricks-and-mortar institutions, with potentially fewer enrolments and reduced income, plus the requirement to reduce carbon, means we must be more efficient.
Historically, a 'top-down' approach has been suggested, where the amount of space per full-time student is limited to match 'best practice'. This approach has been used in publications like the Architects Metric Handbook.
The 'top-down' approach was perhaps best exemplified in the early 2000s by the English Learning and Skills Council (LSC), which surveyed space within general Further Education colleges. The LSC recommended that all FE colleges strive to match the survey's most efficient 33%. However, given the diverse curriculum offerings in FE colleges across the UK, the most efficient third of colleges may have largely avoided teaching those subjects that require the most space (such as construction or engineering).
This method resulted in the oft-quoted maximum floor space allowance of 14.5 sqm multiplied by the estimated Planned Average Attendance on site (m2/PAA).
Given curriculum variations, individual institutions may find it easy or difficult to comply with this approach. However, complying does not identify the Optimum floor space for your institution.
What is needed is a method that identifies the appropriate range of attractive, well-equipped spaces required to deliver the Curriculum Plan. That plan will include qualification outcomes, targetted student numbers, preferred pedagogies, and on-site taught hours.
This bespoke 'bottom-up' method responds to the real-world context, which means careful consultation, research, and thought.
The optimum total floor area will be large enough to accommodate all the required spaces. The allocation should also include some "wriggle room" to acknowledge the volatility of year-by-year enrolment. However, we should also avoid excess space that will likely be under-utilised.
Our guiding principle is 'quality before quantity'.